THE USE OF BIOCLIMATIC VARIABLES IN GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION STUDIES OF Atta sexdens AND Atta cephalotes (HYMENOPTERA: FORMICIDAE) IN CURRENT AND FUTURE SCENARIOS IN THE COCOA REGION OF SOUTH BAHIA-BRAZIL
Cocoa, biogeography, ecossystems, climate change.
Bahia stands out as one of the largest cocoa producing states in Brazil. In the southern region of Bahia, cabrucas extend over more than 400 thousand hectares, located in more than 70 municipalities that have an important economic and historical relationship with this Agroforestry System. Leaf-cutter ants of the genus Atta are extremely important for forest ecosystems and in cabrucas, species such as A. Sexdens and Cephalotes are the most common, and can cause serious economic damage to cocoa crops, due to their foraging habits. Recently, studies have proven that temperature and precipitation are variables that are of great importance in the behavior of these insects and climate change can directly affect the dynamics of biological species. In this sense, this work aims to identify which bioclimatic variables can affect the distribution and occurrences of the species A. Sexdens and A. Cephalotes in the cabrucas of the state of Bahia, through analysis of species distribution models. To build the current and future prediction models, the statistical program R and the MaxEnt algorithm were used, which identified areas of distribution and occurrence with current and future prediction until 2050. The areas of greatest bioclimatic suitability are between the southern and southern regions. extreme south of the state of Bahia and small occurrences in other regions of Bahia. The models had an effectiveness rate that varied between 80% and 90%, presenting 8 bioclimatic variables with the greatest contribution to their construction. The present study contributes as a management tool for the species A. Sexdens and a. Cephalotes, given its economic importance in the region, above all, contributes to future biogeographic studies, considering the importance of these insects in forest ecosystems.